Sellers Have Control, but Support Is Close
IN THIS EDITION
- 01 / Market Context
- 02 / ES Chart
- 03 / Important Levels
- 04 / Trading Higher
- 05 / Trading Lower
- 06 / What Else…
The psychological battle
is a forever battle.
A range, with decisions on both sides.
01 / MARKET CONTEXTThe Nasdaq’s failed breakout has put the burden back on buyers. ES has held up better, but its failed attempt to recover the recent balance range leaves the short-term structure vulnerable. The challenge heading into this week is location: sellers have control, yet price is approaching an area that could still become the bottom of a broader range. I’m cautious about chasing shorts here and equally cautious about assuming the first bounce marks a reversal.
The bigger picture
NQ has returned to its year-to-date volume point of control, the price with the most traded volume this year. That is a logical place to pause after a failed breakout, but it does not automatically make it durable support. A weekly higher low remains possible, with the September lows at 28878.75 RTH / 28816.25 ETH and demand near 28500 providing reference points. Continued weakness keeps a deeper rotation toward the July low in play.
ES has not yet broken a prior month’s low since establishing its low for the year, and October’s value remains overlapping to higher relative to September. That leaves room for this decline to become a larger balance rather than a sustained correction.
The concern is the overlapping ranges beneath price. Losing one balance can open a quick move through the next, as NQ recently demonstrated. For ES, 7644-7649 and the September low at 7575 are important tests. Sellers building time and volume below 7649, alongside a break of September’s low, would strengthen the case for a more meaningful correction.
Trading through support and establishing acceptance below it are different events. A sharp liquidation that is quickly reclaimed calls for a different response than a market that starts building value lower.
Important levels to monitor
02 / THE DECISION MAPThese levels organize the plan. The reaction at a level matters more than the number alone.
| Level | Role / What I’m Watching |
|---|---|
| 7797-7803 | Prior WK VAL, Overnight highs, Thurs/Fri Highs |
| 7765-7774.50 | Single Print / Friday IBL |
| 7739-7743 | First LAAF area if we rally first. Can extend towards 7754 |
| 7706-7712 | Early Pivot, Friday’s end of day rally high. |
| 7669-7673 | Weekly low cluster, Single Print |
| 7631-7634 | September breaks were quickly bought. Watch whether sellers can now hold price below it. |
| 7624-7634 | Intermediate reaction area. |
| 7591-7594 | Excess Low / Demand |
| 7575 | September low and a key test of the monthly structure. |
| 7541-7543 | Small bullish regular-session gap and a major potential balance low. |
Rallies need to prove themselves
03 / TRADING HIGHER SCENARIOA rally first is more difficult to trust because ES has room to form another lower high within Friday’s range. The current 30-minute structure remains bearish beneath the 7801.75 RTH / 7809.50 ETH lower highs, and I continue to view 7815-7820 as the broader repair zone with CPI Low just above it.
For an initial rally without a failed breakdown beneath the weekly lows, these are the areas where I’ll watch for rejection:
- 7739-7743, potentially extending to 7754.
- 7765-7774.50, Single Print, Friday IBL
- 7780-7784, with resistance potentially beginning near 7775.
The outlook improves if ES first undercuts support, reclaims it, and then recovers 7739-7743. That sequence would make me less interested in fading each resistance zone and improve the chance of a recovery toward 7815-7820. The path between those levels could still be choppy.
For a more durable reversal, buyers need to take out a prior day’s high, hold the advance, and begin shifting value higher. If a new reversal day forms after another move lower, its high becomes the nearer reference for that process.
Acceptance above 7815-7820 would weaken the bearish case. Clearing 7838-7841 would provide further confirmation and reopen 7869-7872, followed by the prior week’s high.
Watch for continuation or a failed breakdown
04 / TRADING LOWER SCENARIO7706-7712 is the immediate pivot. Holding below it keeps pressure on Friday’s 7676 low and the nearby 7669-7675 support cluster, which includes the 7672.75 weekly reference.
This is where I become more selective with any shorts. A break beneath these lows followed by a prompt reclaim, a look below and fail, could create a responsive long setup. I’ll also watch 7656 area for a deeper undercut that fails to attract continued selling. The setup requires recovery and follow-through; simply touching support is not enough.
If sellers establish acceptance below this area, 7644-7649 becomes the next downside objective.
7541-7543 is the larger decision area. Buyers could establish the bottom of a broader multi-week or multi-month range here. Sustained acceptance below it would materially increase the risk of a deeper rotation toward the July low at 7326.25, with 7247.25 representing the far side of the larger balance. Those remain conditional downside scenarios, not immediate targets.
Let structure decide tell the Story
05 / Final ThoughtsThe divergence across indexes remains important. YM needs to recover Friday’s high and sustain the move to support another rotation higher, with its bearish regular-session gap remaining a potential obstacle. RSP needs a higher low and another attempt through Friday’s rejection area. RTY remains weak at an important inflection and has yet to show the same relief.
A recovery supported by those markets would carry more weight than an isolated bounce in ES.
My starting bias remains bearish while ES holds below its repair zones, but the next opportunity depends on how price behaves around support. Acceptance below 7644-7649 would favor further downside; a failed break beneath the weekly lows followed by a reclaim of 7739-7743 would give buyers a more credible recovery setup. I’ll stay patient at the extremes, require confirmation, and trade the response level by level.