With the weekend failure of a “deal” some of this plan may be mute at first but will carry on as is. What matters most is where RTH opens and what RTH does. Apply Exhaustion Gap rules at the start if Sunday’s open starts with a large gap down. Markets […]
ES Weekend
April 4, 2026
ES Weekend April 5
Markets come into the week in a much more delicate position than the headline close might suggest. Yes, ES held an important yearly level and rallied sharply from the lows, but I do not think this is the kind of move that should automatically be trusted as the start of […]
March 29, 2026
ES Weekend March 29
Markets have now entered a more fragile phase, and I do not think that should be minimized. ES has broken down through the bottom of the multi-month balance, and that is a meaningful technical development that deserves respect until proven otherwise. While the selloff may feel stretched and a relief […]
March 15, 2026
ES Weekend March 15
We have contract roll this week, with ES and NQ moving from the March contracts into June. TradingView will switch the front contracts Monday night ahead of Tuesday’s session. Generally speaking, the levels themselves should continue to work reasonably well on the new contract, but of course their meaning changes […]
March 8, 2026
ES Weekend March 8
Markets are entering the week in a precarious spot. ES has now lost an important yearly level (6804-12) and is sitting at a meaningful inflection point, while volatility remains elevated and credit continues to wave a caution flag in the background. That does not automatically mean some kind of crash […]
March 1, 2026
ES Weekend March 1
We’ve been monitoring this multi-month balance closely since October, when the potential for a larger consolidation was first identified (see 2026 Balance Prime). For the first time since the 2025 low, sellers have accomplished something meaningful on higher timeframes that can’t be ignored. That doesn’t imply a crash is imminent, but […]
February 22, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 22
The main objective last week, and again this week, is for buyers to reclaim the upper distribution from two weeks ago. That starts with holding the 4-day balance top at 6925.75 and using it as support on any pullback. Above that, we still have a large single print 6931-6960.25 that remains unfinished business. All […]
February 15, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 15
This upcoming week is all about the double distribution profile that developed on the S&P 500. I’ve mentioned repeatedly that sellers need to build volume below the 6900s, and we’re finally starting to see that occur. The February 3rd liquidation created a lower distribution range at 6886.25–6947.75, and buyers needed […]
February 1, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 1
After last week, we completed the V-shape recovery off 6818-6823, rallying more than 200 points and printing a new ETH ATH at 7043.25. That push was followed by a LAAF of the prior ETH ATH, which rotated price back down into the FOMC window and the first major earnings prints. Buyers are very […]
January 25, 2026
ES Weekend Jan 25
The gap down from last weekend sparked a meaningful move that aligned well with the previously discussed extreme levels. This included the 45–54 and 72–81 gap-measured ranges, as well as the 108–115 daily/weekly extension. Going into Tuesday’s close, we saw a final flush into the 6818–6823 liquidation zone, which left […]