The indices continue to one-time-frame higher (OTF) across all timeframes: daily (ending 6687.25), weekly (ending 6611), and monthly (ending 6239.5). Risks, divergences, and extreme valuations are all well known, but in the short term, price action is what matters. Until we at least see a multi-day balance break to the downside, the bias remains firmly to the upside.
We are in the seasonal window that often leans weaker into late October, so caution is warranted. That said, bulls remain relatively safe above 6611 and even into the 6560s, where we would expect a higher weekly low to form. Staying above 6541.75 continues to protect the 4-week breakout.
ES has shown slightly more risk relative to NQ but remains constructive. The past two sessions rotated between 6687–90 and 6714–18. Into Friday’s close, ES cleaned up Thursday’s highs and printed a fresh RTH ATH at 6731.50. This move was marked by a late-day spike that was initially rejected. On Monday, apply Spike Rules to gauge buyer intent: if they can sustain trade above, the market should continue higher.
For this week, we’ll use Friday’s range (6687.25–6731.50) as our guide. Friday’s high marks the spike zone (6726.75–6731.50), while Friday’s low aligns with the FOMC high and Thursday’s B-period low. Last week also built a double distribution; buyers will want to defend the lower distribution around the weekly level 6676–80, with Thursday’s low and last week’s POC just beneath.
Trading Lower
- A move below 6714–18 reopens the rotation between 6687–90 and 6714–18, with Friday’s low defining the lower boundary.
- The 6687–6680/70 zone may trade choppy, but I expect buyers to attempt defense as an LBAF. A failure here risks liquidation into the FOMC’s range, which would weaken the buyer case.
- 6653–6640 offers some protection against last week’s low and the ~30-point excess from the FOMC down-move. Note: September’s POC sits near 6650 (back-adjusted), with last week’s VAL at 6653.
Trading Higher
- Sustaining above 6714–19 keeps pressure on last week’s high (6729–33).
- Acceptance above targets the FOMC 100% extension at 6763–65, then 6769–75 (Friday’s full range extension).
- Further upside includes 6798–6801, with the weekly 100% extension pointing toward 6850.
Final Thoughts
The odds of a “mega correction” appear low, as the Fed has already cut rates and provided a clear path into December 2025 — effectively establishing a downside floor unless an unexpected shock arises. ES has already extended +304 points in September, nearing typical monthly exhaustion levels (324–351 points). From here, I’ll be watching for a tactical pullback of ~162–234 points as a swing short opportunity, followed by a renewed buy-the-dip setup for a higher weekly low.
As a reminder, I do not back adjust my continuous ES chart so the roll gap may skew until more price action is provided. Continue to also refer to SPX/SPY for additional balance and weekly profiles.
ES Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/
Easily add the most relevant levels to your chart using my Mult-Range Highlighter indicator.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/K2xhcb3c-Multi-Range-Highlighter-blue/
Minor Levels:
6842-6845
6823-6826
6798-6801
6751-6754 Fri Extn 50%
6714-6718
6687-6690 FOMC High / Friday Low
6640-6644
Major Levels:
6769-6775 Fri Extn 100%
6729-6733 Fri High / Spike Top / ATH
6676-6680
6650-6653 Last WK VAL
6606-6611 FOMC Low / Last WK Low
6598-6600
6558-6562 CPI High
Other Levels to Note:
6611-6686.75 FOMC Range
6726.75-6731.5 Spike 9/19
6714.25-6718 Single Print
6588.25 ESU25 Settlement
6579-6581.5 Single Print
6558-6562 Single Print