I’ve mentioned previously that the current low may not be the low. What bothers me is the volume profile since then. The low is not at a bad location, it’s at an important level an area of the 3-year breakout. But the amount of volume that is top side verses […]
After a huge portion of Wednesday’s move was given back on Thursday and price fell below the highs of the preceding 3 days, this was a bearish setup potentially targeting new lows. Instead, bulls defended and formed a bit of a double distribution week. This is a good look for […]
What goes up, must come down. But how much down is left? Quite a bit actually. We’re now at an area where buyers may start to appear. However, I am in no rush to buy equities – especially leveraged ones. Nibble here, nibble there is fine, but will remain cash […]
We’re now in weekly balance 5509.25-5770.50. With 3 major events behind us, we should see a clearer picture form in ES. A number of weeks ago we were looking for the ATH balance 200% extension and that arrived back on March 11th and followed a few days later with a […]
Note that this week is contract roll with the June contracts roughly being 50-53pts higher in premium. I will be trading June contracts (ESM) going forward. The ES live chart is flip once TradingView does the roll which is Monday evening. I prefer to keep it non back adjusted as, […]
The last day of February ended with a massive short covering rally. As impressive as it was creating a very large 50pt spike, I warned of what needed to happen: I would be very cautious assuming that we see bullish continuation out the gate as there are numerous cards stacked […]
Mid February, caution was given about similarities to February 2020 and February seasonality. February 19, just so happen was the top with a failed breakout of balance followed by a liquidation on Friday OPEX. Following that liquidation, we continued down Monday; however, on Tuesday a decent size excess from a […]
Seasonality did you say. COVID 2.0? If we go by the seasonality chart, it did not disappoint with Feb 19 marking the top last week. In addition, this so far, would be a look above and fail of balance. Buyers held the 6108 area on Thursday, but failed to continue […]
Hot CPI/PPI, miss Retail Sales be damned, we going to the moon Alice! Monday is a holiday for RTH. With Friday being a tight consolidation, we want to observe if buyers can indeed maintain the trend established from Thursday. Value was moved higher in the buyers favor which makes it […]
Last week saw major liquidation with late longs going into FOMC. Thursday was an inside day followed by weakness in the overnight session going to into PCE Friday morning. Going into this week will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low during RTH 5898.50 as the halfback of […]