Some turbulence while I was away. The main objective since October 8 has been to clean up the ETH all-time high (6812.25). Since then, headlines around the “100-155%” China tariff — on, off, on again, handshakes, meetings planned, and so on — kept the market chopping inside the October 10 […]
ES Weekend
October 4, 2025
ES Weekend Oct 5
Will have to make this a brief as I found myself out of town. Last week’s two key long setups 6676–6680 (Wednesday ETH) and 6741–6744 (Thursday RTH) offered excellent opportunities, with the primary target being the ETH all-time high cleanup. From last week: If we fail to hold above 6700–6706, […]
September 27, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 28
Last week began with a strong trend higher — perhaps even some frantic buying — that left behind a poor high. A poor high typically signals unfinished business to the upside, though at times it can also mark short-term exhaustion. What it is not is a durable high; for that, we’d want to […]
September 20, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 21
The indices continue to one-time-frame higher (OTF) across all timeframes: daily (ending 6687.25), weekly (ending 6611), and monthly (ending 6239.5). Risks, divergences, and extreme valuations are all well known, but in the short term, price action is what matters. Until we at least see a multi-day balance break to the […]
September 14, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 14
The bulls showed up in force while I was away, and the bigger picture hasn’t changed much — we remain OTFU across higher timeframes, grinding toward the upcoming FOMC rate decision. That said, we do need to stay cautious with this week’s event risk. A quick reminder: there’s no directional […]
August 24, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 24
There remains a notable divergence between ES and NQ. Meanwhile, RTY and YM have been more constructive and now look quite strong. If we’re to see any meaningful downside, it will almost certainly require all four indices moving together. So far, money has stayed invested in the market and simply […]
August 16, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 17
This past week delivered the long-awaited breakout of the six-week balance on ES, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows while building value higher. That said, the follow-through has felt somewhat lackluster. Bulls may simply be showing fatigue after such a strong, direct move off the balance lows. […]
August 9, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 10
When markets are in balance, price tends to rotate within the range. The longer the balance lasts, the more persistent these back-and-forth rotations become. Last week was no exception—we began near the prior five-week balance lows and closed near the highs. We’re now in a six-week balance, and a sustained break […]
August 3, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 3
The recent action appears to be a classic case of liquidation and positioning unwind—a process that often takes time to fully play out. While it’s possible the unwind has already run its course, history suggests otherwise. Experienced bulls typically wait until this kind of reset shows clear signs of exhaustion […]
July 27, 2025
ES Weekend July 27
Last week, the main area of interest was Friday’s poor low and if buyers could hold the spike from July 16. My main plan was to get a LBAF of Friday’s low and reclaim. That indeed happened Tuesday morning and we ripped higher, reclaiming then 6 day balance and cleaned […]