We’ve been monitoring this multi-month balance closely since October, when the potential for a larger consolidation was first identified (see 2026 Balance Prime). For the first time since the 2025 low, sellers have accomplished something meaningful on higher timeframes that can’t be ignored. That doesn’t imply a crash is imminent, but […]
ES Weekend
February 22, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 22
The main objective last week, and again this week, is for buyers to reclaim the upper distribution from two weeks ago. That starts with holding the 4-day balance top at 6925.75 and using it as support on any pullback. Above that, we still have a large single print 6931-6960.25 that remains unfinished business. All […]
February 15, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 15
This upcoming week is all about the double distribution profile that developed on the S&P 500. I’ve mentioned repeatedly that sellers need to build volume below the 6900s, and we’re finally starting to see that occur. The February 3rd liquidation created a lower distribution range at 6886.25–6947.75, and buyers needed […]
February 1, 2026
ES Weekend Feb 1
After last week, we completed the V-shape recovery off 6818-6823, rallying more than 200 points and printing a new ETH ATH at 7043.25. That push was followed by a LAAF of the prior ETH ATH, which rotated price back down into the FOMC window and the first major earnings prints. Buyers are very […]
January 25, 2026
ES Weekend Jan 25
The gap down from last weekend sparked a meaningful move that aligned well with the previously discussed extreme levels. This included the 45–54 and 72–81 gap-measured ranges, as well as the 108–115 daily/weekly extension. Going into Tuesday’s close, we saw a final flush into the 6818–6823 liquidation zone, which left […]
January 11, 2026
ES Weekend Jan 11
As of now, the three-month balance has broken to the upside, with Friday closing just nine points above the range. With the door only slightly cracked open, I’ll remain cautious heading into next week, though bulls are innocent until proven guilty. The reaction to NFP was notably weak. Bulls managed […]
January 3, 2026
ES Weekend Jan 4
Welcome to 2026. For many participants, this first week often sets the tone for the year. The so-called Santa Rally turned out to be a mixed bag—depending on when (or if) you were involved. The Santa window officially closes on Monday, which raises the question: can bulls salvage it in […]
December 28, 2025
ES Weekend Dec 28
So far, the holiday period has delivered exactly what we’d expect: a slow grind higher. The mid-December “rug pull” played out cleanly, ending with a spike down that failed during the following Asia session. CPI then provided the fuel to carry us into the end of that week, finishing Friday, […]
December 21, 2025
ES Weekend Dec 21
Again a short plan as I’m out and about. Will probably not do much this week other than find dips to buy. This week may play out like Thanksgiving – a slow grind. Maybe Santa rally started, but maybe it’s a quick trap as it’s usually closer to the end […]
December 13, 2025
ES Weekend Dec 14 (Abbreviated)
I’m not going to have a chance to fully write out a full plan/review, but we haven’t really moved much from last week either. So that plan is relatively the same. The chart is updated but debating on keeping the WK pivot where it is. However, that was such a […]