Last week began with a strong trend higher — perhaps even some frantic buying — that left behind a poor high. A poor high typically signals unfinished business to the upside, though at times it can also mark short-term exhaustion. What it is not is a durable high; for that, we’d want to […]
ES Weekend
ES Weekend Sept 21
The indices continue to one-time-frame higher (OTF) across all timeframes: daily (ending 6687.25), weekly (ending 6611), and monthly (ending 6239.5). Risks, divergences, and extreme valuations are all well known, but in the short term, price action is what matters. Until we at least see a multi-day balance break to the […]
ES Weekend Sept 14
The bulls showed up in force while I was away, and the bigger picture hasn’t changed much — we remain OTFU across higher timeframes, grinding toward the upcoming FOMC rate decision. That said, we do need to stay cautious with this week’s event risk. A quick reminder: there’s no directional […]
ES Weekend Aug 24
There remains a notable divergence between ES and NQ. Meanwhile, RTY and YM have been more constructive and now look quite strong. If we’re to see any meaningful downside, it will almost certainly require all four indices moving together. So far, money has stayed invested in the market and simply […]
ES Weekend Aug 17
This past week delivered the long-awaited breakout of the six-week balance on ES, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows while building value higher. That said, the follow-through has felt somewhat lackluster. Bulls may simply be showing fatigue after such a strong, direct move off the balance lows. […]
ES Weekend Aug 10
When markets are in balance, price tends to rotate within the range. The longer the balance lasts, the more persistent these back-and-forth rotations become. Last week was no exception—we began near the prior five-week balance lows and closed near the highs. We’re now in a six-week balance, and a sustained break […]
ES Weekend Aug 3
The recent action appears to be a classic case of liquidation and positioning unwind—a process that often takes time to fully play out. While it’s possible the unwind has already run its course, history suggests otherwise. Experienced bulls typically wait until this kind of reset shows clear signs of exhaustion […]
ES Weekend July 27
Last week, the main area of interest was Friday’s poor low and if buyers could hold the spike from July 16. My main plan was to get a LBAF of Friday’s low and reclaim. That indeed happened Tuesday morning and we ripped higher, reclaiming then 6 day balance and cleaned […]
ES Weekend July 13
We’re now in 6 day balance (6246.25-6335.5). Both ends are targets with a poor low on the low and unfinished business on the high. The main objective for buyers is to defend the low and to keep OTFU on the weekly. If sellers gain the upper hand in the short […]
ES Weekend June 29
Last week the important area was below Friday’s low and the 3 week balance top. The key was looking if sellers could even get traction below it from the US holiday session. Sunday we opened right at our 5965-68 zone and was quickly bid back to Friday’s low. On Monday […]