Both the daily and weekly timeframes are still pushing higher, while the monthly remains in balance. That backdrop helps explain the sharp response off the recent lows and the increasingly choppy behavior as we approach the highs. Until we see a decisive break out of this upper end of the […]
ES Weekend
November 16, 2025
ES Weekend Nov 16
We finished the week essentially unchanged, forming an inside week and closing almost exactly where we ended the prior Friday. Early in the week, we opened with a gap up on news and pushed directly into the upper target zone at 6897-6908, which also aligned with the weekly expected high an area where I noted caution […]
November 9, 2025
ES Weekend Nov 9
This past week’s breakdown was built on value migrating below the prior week’s VAL (6,868). That shift lower was confirmed as the remainder of the week continued to build value and price beneath the upper distribution (6,840s), ultimately leaving OTFU (one-time framing up) across both the daily and weekly timeframes. The key takeaway heading into this week […]
October 25, 2025
ES Weekend Oct 26
Some turbulence while I was away. The main objective since October 8 has been to clean up the ETH all-time high (6812.25). Since then, headlines around the “100-155%” China tariff — on, off, on again, handshakes, meetings planned, and so on — kept the market chopping inside the October 10 […]
October 4, 2025
ES Weekend Oct 5
Will have to make this a brief as I found myself out of town. Last week’s two key long setups 6676–6680 (Wednesday ETH) and 6741–6744 (Thursday RTH) offered excellent opportunities, with the primary target being the ETH all-time high cleanup. From last week: If we fail to hold above 6700–6706, […]
September 27, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 28
Last week began with a strong trend higher — perhaps even some frantic buying — that left behind a poor high. A poor high typically signals unfinished business to the upside, though at times it can also mark short-term exhaustion. What it is not is a durable high; for that, we’d want to […]
September 20, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 21
The indices continue to one-time-frame higher (OTF) across all timeframes: daily (ending 6687.25), weekly (ending 6611), and monthly (ending 6239.5). Risks, divergences, and extreme valuations are all well known, but in the short term, price action is what matters. Until we at least see a multi-day balance break to the […]
September 14, 2025
ES Weekend Sept 14
The bulls showed up in force while I was away, and the bigger picture hasn’t changed much — we remain OTFU across higher timeframes, grinding toward the upcoming FOMC rate decision. That said, we do need to stay cautious with this week’s event risk. A quick reminder: there’s no directional […]
August 24, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 24
There remains a notable divergence between ES and NQ. Meanwhile, RTY and YM have been more constructive and now look quite strong. If we’re to see any meaningful downside, it will almost certainly require all four indices moving together. So far, money has stayed invested in the market and simply […]
August 16, 2025
ES Weekend Aug 17
This past week delivered the long-awaited breakout of the six-week balance on ES, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows while building value higher. That said, the follow-through has felt somewhat lackluster. Bulls may simply be showing fatigue after such a strong, direct move off the balance lows. […]