Note that this week is contract roll with the June contracts roughly being 50-53pts higher in premium. I will be trading June contracts (ESM) going forward. The ES live chart is flip once TradingView does the roll which is Monday evening. I prefer to keep it non back adjusted as, […]
The last day of February ended with a massive short covering rally. As impressive as it was creating a very large 50pt spike, I warned of what needed to happen: I would be very cautious assuming that we see bullish continuation out the gate as there are numerous cards stacked […]
Mid February, caution was given about similarities to February 2020 and February seasonality. February 19, just so happen was the top with a failed breakout of balance followed by a liquidation on Friday OPEX. Following that liquidation, we continued down Monday; however, on Tuesday a decent size excess from a […]
Seasonality did you say. COVID 2.0? If we go by the seasonality chart, it did not disappoint with Feb 19 marking the top last week. In addition, this so far, would be a look above and fail of balance. Buyers held the 6108 area on Thursday, but failed to continue […]
Hot CPI/PPI, miss Retail Sales be damned, we going to the moon Alice! Monday is a holiday for RTH. With Friday being a tight consolidation, we want to observe if buyers can indeed maintain the trend established from Thursday. Value was moved higher in the buyers favor which makes it […]
Last week saw major liquidation with late longs going into FOMC. Thursday was an inside day followed by weakness in the overnight session going to into PCE Friday morning. Going into this week will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low during RTH 5898.50 as the halfback of […]
We continue OTFU on the weekly and daily. I want to be slightly cautious above here, not because it’s bearish, but simply because we’re above a 2 sigma deviation (SPX 6073) of the YTD vwap (SPX 5405). In the past, price has whipsawed at this deviation up to the 2.5. […]
Massive move last week. Regardless of the election outcome, seasonality wise, long for the election has been the plan. Now, the dust will be begin the settle and will be looking out for new balance to form. Until Daily OTFU (one-time framing up) ends, trend up is your friend. Buyers […]
We continue to move higher where false breakouts and breakdowns happened daily generally with a Spike at the end of session. As we continue to consolidate after expansion, we must continue to engage at the edges. We now have a new 5 day balance (5850-5925). The lower end marking the […]
We buy until we die. – Me so tired… Last week, the main goal for buyers was to remain above 2 week balance low – 5720’s-30’s mostly in part to protect the FOMC range. Monday evening’s liquidation move did just that and gave enough steam to reverse Monday’s move back […]