With the weekend failure of a “deal” some of this plan may be mute at first but will carry on as is. What matters most is where RTH opens and what RTH does. Apply Exhaustion Gap rules at the start if Sunday’s open starts with a large gap down.
Markets head into the week with the short time frame uptrend still fully intact, and that matters. ES has continued to show real strength, with prior single prints being defended and the market refusing to offer any meaningful reason yet to lean aggressively short. That said, we are now approaching an area where I do not think traders should not be comfortable chasing strength blindly. ES is nearing a key yearly zone and what I would consider a broader “scene of the crime” area tied to where weakness opened up earlier in the year. So while the uptrend remains active, this is no longer the kind of location where I want to be casual on the long side.
The core idea for the week is fairly clean. As long as ES holds 6833-6837 including up to 6847, the active short time frame uptrend remains intact and fading it in any meaningful way should be discouraged. The market has not yet done what it needs to do to neutralize this trend. At the same time, Friday’s action showed some early signs that the move may be ready to at least pause. That does not confirm unless a prior day’s low is taken on a cash-hours basis, but it does mean this is a week where discipline around structure matters more than opinion.
For me, 6833-6837/47 is the key decision point to start the week. If that zone holds, inclusive of a look below and fail (LBAF), then buyers remain in control and the path higher stays open. On the bigger picture, continued holds above the broader 6804-6814 yearly area keep the door open to 6910, 6926-31. 6901 area should remain on the chart as an important reference – 2026 Open. More broadly, the entire 6900 to 6930 region has been tricky all year and should be treated with respect.
That means the bullish roadmap is straightforward: if 6833-6837 continues to hold and ES can break Friday’s high with continuation, the trend remains intact and higher prices stay in play. In that scenario, 6926-31 becomes the major upside objective. But I would be very careful around 6901 area and especially as price approaches the upper end of that 6900-6930 region. This is an area where rejection could matter, and where a failed push could send ES back toward 6804-6814. Still, until a multi-day balance actually breaks lower, there is no reason to fight the trend just because price has reached a “big level.”
On the bearish side, the first thing sellers need to do is simple: take out a prior day low on a cash-hours basis and, more specifically, lose 6833-6837 and flip it back to resistance. That does not immediately start a downtrend, but it would neutralize the active short time frame uptrend and bring the daily into balance. From there, the next move would depend on whether that newly formed balance breaks higher again or rolls lower. Once balance forms: upside breakout with continuation is a long, downside break with continuation is a short, a LBAF is a long, and a LAAF is a short.
If the single print fails to hold and 6833-6837 is flipped to resistance, I would generally expect at least a move toward 6790-6793, the Ceasefire Event High. Realistically, that would also bring Wednesday’s low and the bull gap into focus. That bull gap is important. It should be expected to protect the bullish structure, at least initially, and any reaction within it could set up a failed break of balance back to the upside. The complication is that the gap is very large, which means partial fills and messy reversals are very possible.
At this stage, I think the cleanest way to frame the market is that the trend still deserves respect, but the location deserves caution. ES has not yet given a meaningful reason to look for larger shorts, and blindly fading strength has not worked. At the same time, price is now pushing into an area where I do not want to grow complacent on the long side. Respect 6833-6837 as the initial pivot. Above it, the uptrend remains active and higher remains in play. Lose it and flip it to resistance, and the market finally has a chance to pause, form balance, and force a more two-sided decision. Until then, the path of least resistance remains higher, even if it is becoming a more dangerous place to press late longs.
ES Expected Move this week: 123pts
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