Last weekend, we were left with an inside week where I said it is played the same as an inside day. If traded lower, we either LBAF the inside candle low or find continuation to the prior low.
From last week…
Breaking below last week’s low 5251-60, opens the inside day low which has not been tested yet at 5146.75. This is where the remaining single print remains which won’t be fully filled until 5088. There is a good potential for a LBAF of the inside day low which could venture towards 5130-38 before happening.
We did break below the inside week low and found ourselves at the inside day low which was not tested. The possibilities of buyer showing up here was expected so I was fishing for longs at 5127. Tuesday was somewhat a surprise, as I was ideally wanting a pullback first to allow more longs entries with a better defined risk. Of course this did not happen and we shot off immediately after the open. After Tuesday’s close, news hit and we gapped higher holding the globex lows.
Going into Thursday, London had the perfect opportunity to continue their push into the gap fill; however, they failed miserably and because of that, NY stepped on the gas and moved us higher at the open. Finally, Friday presented us with a bearish setup…
Top of range… rejection… below yesterday’s spike….. Bearish setup but no bearish results “yet”.
After the IB close, buyers again stepped in and continued us higher resulting in the no bearish results on the bearish setup. This is quite bullish if found taking us above the outer week high and nearly reaching the ATH vwap and Tariff Event low (5566.50)
For this week, if we are holding above last week’s high 5554.5 then the breakout is clearly sustained. Holding above 5540.5 I would consider it sustained, and above 5520-5525 I would consider it fine and probably sustained. Any kind of failed break higher will need to take out these spots and ultimately find persistent traction below Friday’s low 5480.
Using Friday’s range as a guide, The high is at our 5554-60 weekly zone which includes the Globex session highs after the Tariff announcement on April 2nd. If above Friday’s high, should move towards 5566.50 where the Tariff Event Low and current ATH vwap resides. After hours on Friday saw a move nearing this. Above there, the futures gap fill is at 5585. At this point we are in the upper ranges of a larger balance from Aug 2024 (5146-5601). If we move directly to 5580 or 5612 prior to a decent pullback, I would be lite on any new longs and assume a potential heavier resistance. The true gap prior to the Tariff announcement is 5610.75.
As always, trading lower first is more beneficial for bulls vs trading higher first. therefore, as mentioned above holding above 5540 and 5520 is fine and dandy. I would keep a heavy eye on 5520-25. This includes the outside week high, spike 4/24 and Friday’s halfback. Just below at 5512 is the multi week balance low during March. Below here, we can move towards 5496 the inside WK high and last week POC followed by Friday’s low 5474-80. Below this level weakness will increase opening a move into the single prints at 5441.5-5456.
I would be highly interested in a LBAF of Friday’s low that reclaims 5496. If we then reclaim 5520, longer swing longs would be appropriate for runners as back above 5520-25 continues higher lows with the rest of the levels mentioned as profit areas.
Buyers will not be in any serious trouble until 5386-98.5 fails as that would allow the opportunity for the a gap fill lower. Below 5340-5346 (lower highs and lower lows) is where trouble can really start for bulls. We’ve got a big wave of earnings and jobs data coming in this week. I’ve been saying for a while that a slowdown in either one could be the key story for the rest of the year. This week could either give the rally a solid boost—or pull the rug out from under it.
Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/