I’m not going to have a chance to fully write out a full plan/review, but we haven’t really moved much from last week either. So that plan is relatively the same. The chart is updated but debating on keeping the WK pivot where it is. However, that was such a pivotal spot last week so it makes sense to keep it. I decided to add a mini balance 6820-72, but keep in mind the main upper distribution balance from before. It’s still there, just to the left.
So at a minimum, your initial trades are a LBAF of Friday’s low and a LAAF/rejection of the single print 6869.75-6885.75. Acceptance above, let’s say 6882 and last week’s VAH, opens Friday’s high followed by the after hours high from ORCL’s ER 6929 followed by ATH (Z25 cons).
It is entirely possible that Asia bids it out of the gate without Friday’s low, if that’s the case, I would be mindful of 6844-52 and up to 6855 where the afternoon rally attempt failed. This zone also includes the POC since Nov low.
Below Friday’s low, you know the deal. We have a P volume profile since November’s low so anther liquidation is there if they want it. We still have structure to clean up with those two single prints in the 6740’s-50’s and the true gap / value gap to fill. Wash out the late Santa Rally folks, trap the sellers wanting Nov low, then send it. Now with that said, if we remain below 6791-97 and then 6724-32 then yeah lights out and that Nov low may get more traction.
Keep in mind, a proper Santa rally is generally the last few days of December and first few days of January. A fresh liquidation break into this period might be the perfect opportunity to get long for that rally if/when the market finds its feet in a downside scenario.
And as a reminder, I do not back adjust my charts so the “roll gap” will pop in there Monday night I believe when TradingView does the flip. Starting Monday’s session, I will be initiating my trades with March contracts and referencing March price starting on Tuesday’s session. Currently it’s about a 60pt difference between Dec and March so adjust the levels if you need it. I would also recommend using SPX as a reference point during these transitions. SPX did not take the prior week’s low (6799.994) like ES did. So a reference point to be aware of (LBAF Friday’s low?).