As of now, the three-month balance has broken to the upside, with Friday closing just nine points above the range. With the door only slightly cracked open, I’ll remain cautious heading into next week, though bulls are innocent until proven guilty.
The reaction to NFP was notably weak. Bulls managed to hold the key 6967–6969 area but were rejected at 6986–6988, followed by a push to a new low of day just shy of the overnight low. What ultimately stabilized price was the presence of a very large, persistent buyer that has been active all week in the 6940s, effectively preventing further downside.
This remains a tentative multi-month breakout, and once again it’s on sellers to invalidate it. At a minimum, sellers need to take out 6934–6938 with continuation to credibly argue for a failed breakout. Practically speaking, that means acceptance below last week’s RTH low at 6932.50. Without that, downside attempts remain corrective.
The most important structural reference from last week is Friday’s session, shaped by both the NFP release and tariff-delay headlines. That session defined 6956–6990s as the critical near-term range. Initiative buyers do not want to spend meaningful time below the 6990s, as doing so risks relinquishing immediate control of the breakout.
With CPI and PPI scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, some degree of two-sided, rotational trade early in the week would not be surprising. Friday’s low at 6956, which overlaps multiple session values and session lows from the 6930s, marks a key area buyers must defend to maintain upside momentum.
The 6995 level should be carried forward as an important reference. It represents the December all-time high and the top of the former multi-month balance. While it’s still early in this breakout attempt, sustained trade below this level would put the breakout into question.
On the upside, continued acceptance above Friday’s low keeps the SPX 7000 objective intact (roughly ES 7040). Beyond that, the 7060s and 7100s will be monitored closely for signs of interim exhaustion.
Failure to hold weekly lows near 6933 places ES below Weekly VAL (~6940), opening the door for initiative sellers targeting the 6906 value gap and then the 6860–6870s, which mark the prior week’s low. Any move of that nature would likely be event-driven and could accelerate into a deeper corrective pullback toward last week’s lower structure.
💭Playbook
🎯Weekly Pivot: 6952-6957. Includes Friday’s low and overlapping values from Mon-Thursday. Taking out Friday’s low does put the weekly in balance. Buyers will need back above 66-69 and 86-88 with value building above. Clues may be had during London sessions.
📈Trading Above targets Friday VAL 6982, last week’s VAH 6987, 3-month balance top 6995, and Friday’s high. Above Friday’s high targets 7032-42 which will include SPX 7000. Watch for a LAAF if seen. Otherwise, we continue on to 7060’s and 7100’s where exhaustion may set in.
📉Trading Lower targets the prior overlapping value and last week’s RTH low 6932-38. Failure to hold put’s last week’s buyers at risk and will then target the value gap at 6905.75 and the prior week’s low/downside pivot 6868-74.
ES Weekly Expected Move: 84pts
Monday Expected Move: 30pts
ES Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/
