With the weekend news of the US strike against Iran any prior plans are basically mute until we see where we open Sunday afternoon and Monday’s RTH open. For the past few weeks, my concerns of where we were with increased risk on new longs was valid, so far.
Here’s the plan. Hold 6k we rotate up the levels. I’d honestly like 6050. Still have to be open about sweeping the low. And even venturing down to 5950 My hunch is a flight to get out before OPEX drama kicks in followed by the pending war news if any. Gap rules if we’re not above Wed low by open.
Plan worked perfectly from Thursday evening open and this bit here from that also seems to be working.
My hunch is a flight to get out before OPEX drama kicks in followed by the pending war news if any.
Throughout the week, we saw lower highs and lower lows. Thursday’s holiday session had us move down into 5965-86 and low and behold news hit and had us gap up with no lookback going into Friday where we ended up at Wednesday’s/FOMC high’s range. Friday’s session also saw 5999-6003 last week’s pivot hold us once again.
With the news over the weekend, we need to be prepared for a decent size gap down. We’ll know in hindsight if it turns into a BTFD or not. If we open on Monday below Friday’s low, 6003.5, then gap rules apply. Reclaiming 6003.5 and taking out Friday/Wednesday highs then that will change things and make bears look silly once again. But we’ll cross that bridge on Monday.
For this week 6029-32 and 5927-32 are my main weekly pivots. Above 6029-32 then we look towards 6050-54 where the next decision is made. If accepted, will look to Friday’s high for a potential LAAF; otherwise, 6082-88 including the ETH Single Print are clear points of interest. Any back-test of 6050-54 from above and holds is a long and will look towards eventually reaching 6105-13.
Trading Lower:
Stronger sellers will want to hold 6029-32 and take out last week’s low with continuation. Of course this may already be the case with the weekend news; however, will be relevant if we happen to be near Friday’s low/range on Monday. Below Friday’s low, the previous 3 week balance top at 5987.5 should be on watch for any failure on sellers to get traction below Thursday’s holiday session and low. There is an open futs gap at 5978 that may find buyers who missed out on the initial move from Thursday’s early close. Any ability for sellers to get lower again puts a pie in their face. With that said, depending on headlines can see us pull back further so eyes around 5927-32 with an untested overnight low at 5925.
Further down, there are a few areas I am highly interested in longs that could potentially turn into decent swings. Could be this week or next.
- 5887-97. This would roughly align with the SPX bull gap.
- 5843-53. SPX gap fill and May 30 ES (non adjusted) Friday low.
Engage at key areas and wait for reversals to show before knifing or getting trapped in the middle. Pay attention to the key areas and how price moves quickly through them or slows down around them.
Key Weekly Levels
6105-13 – Feb 21 single print
6079-82 – Monitor LAAF and ETH single print
6050-54 – Protects Friday/Wed highs
6029-32 – last WK LVN, prior Friday ESM high
5999-6003 – Key pivot from last week, protects Friday’s low and Thursday holiday NY high
5987.5 – 3WK balance Top
5965-68 – Thursday US holiday low and prior Friday low
5927-32 – June LVN, June 5 low, June 12 low
5887-97 – SPX bull gap
5843-53 – SPX gap fill, Major pivot