We finished the week essentially unchanged, forming an inside week and closing almost exactly where we ended the prior Friday.
Early in the week, we opened with a gap up on news and pushed directly into the upper target zone at 6897-6908, which also aligned with the weekly expected high an area where I noted caution for new longs.
On Wednesday evening, I posted this:
Pay attention tomorrow if a change of character occurs. We’ve been holding prior daily lows and initial balance highs… if this changes and these now become offers including accepting below initial balance lows, then burn it all down as they say….. for 5pts when bears get scared. Regardless eyes up and pay attention when it starts to form.
That proved timely, as we sold off nearly 200 points into Friday’s pre-market lows.
Interestingly, the Thursday night into Friday morning sequence mirrored the prior week almost perfectly. The small difference: this week’s continuation sell came during London, whereas last week it occurred during New York. Both ended by returning to their respective overnight consolidation zones. The question now is: Do we gap up again on “magical” news before Monday’s open, or will sellers press their advantage this time?
It’s important to remember that a tired trend does not automatically mean a finished trend. Sometimes the market simply becomes too long and needs a correction whether in time, price, or both.
Friday’s Low
Friday’s low is actually a constructive look. We opened with a large gap down, saw an aggressive opening drive lower into a brick wall of buying, and finished near the upper end of the day’s range. We’re still in “no-man’s land,” but the benefit of the doubt goes to buyers to attempt to keep things together.
Early Week Bias
For sellers, we need to see convincing activity early in the week to justify leaning short. If instead we see a rebid off either set of Friday’s single prints and a clean directional drive higher, I’ll favor longs initially. If sellers come in Monday and break Friday’s profile, then we may see an attempt at a downside break of the multi-week range.
Regardless of who pushes first, we remain inside a multi-week balance and closed off the bottom of that balance on Friday. We respect range edges until they break with continuation.
Key Levels and Structure
For this week, I will use Friday’s range as the primary guide:
- Friday’s low nearly matches the prior Friday’s low and the downside pivot from last week.
- Friday’s high aligns with last Monday’s low and prior merged VALs.
- The Friday close sits at the weekly pivot, with single prints just below.
- A full extension similar to last week targets the ATH region and the 10/10 control bar lows that preceded the after-hours sell.
The 6800 area remains a messy, high-confluence region and effectively acts as the midpoint between the two larger distributions. Neither side has demonstrated consistent control.
Upside
- Watch 6908-6917 closely for rejection or a potential LAAF. There is a single print there at 6809.25-6816.75.
- If buyers push through, sellers must quickly re-establish control of 6793-6796 to remain relevant.
Downside / Failure Scenarios
- 6725 generally needs to hold—or at least be reclaimed from a higher low. Staying below it increases the likelihood that Friday’s rally fails and another liquidation develops.
- Two single-print zones above 6725 may attract responsive buyers:
- 6726.75-6729.75
- 6738-6747
- If those fail, watch for a LBAF around:
- 6707.75 (B-period low)
- 6646-6658
Bigger Picture
It’s hard to be aggressively bullish here, but equally difficult to be outright bearish. The monthly one-time framing up hasn’t even ended and we haven’t taken out a prior month’s low since the low of the year. Breaking this multi-week balance to the downside and taking out October’s low would still likely lead to a back-test before a larger decision is made.
Historically, multi-month balance breaks to the downside are what deliver truly bearish conditions—not a multi-week balance break.
If the multi-week balance breaks to the upside, we’ll probably look back and laugh at how bearish the tone felt. There have been notable changes in character, and the trend is tired, but it is not yet broken.
Scheduling Note
This will be the last published plan until December 7, as I’ll be in the Philippines for Thanksgiving. Leaving on Nov 19th. Chart will be somewhat updated while away If I find a quiet moment to look at it.