Bulls still have the ball, but they need to do more with it. New all-time highs continue to arrive as a sluggish grind, followed almost immediately by selling. Yet sellers have been unable to turn those pullbacks into meaningful downside. Friday’s close keeps the advantage with buyers, while giving sellers a brief window to challenge the breakout. The first move this coming week, and whether it finds continuation, will matter.
The bigger picture
ES is in a five-day balance overlapping prior multi-week ranges. Friday closed above the previous multi-week range, and Thursday’s selling held the key 7780-7784 pivot. Weekly value also moved firmly higher. Those are objectively bullish developments.
An upside break of the current balance favors at least another nominal new high. A downside break with continuation would challenge the breakout and could eventually bring 7672, 7644-48, and 7575 (Multi-WK Balance Low) back into play. I need to see that failure develop before treating those deeper risks as the active scenario.
Bulls remain favored. My concern is the lack of force behind these breakouts, particularly after such a lengthy consolidation in NQ.
Friday’s volume was extremely light across ES, NQ, SPY, and QQQ. That alone does not make me bearish. It does mean the direction of returning volume could carry more weight. With cash bond markets closed for Monday’s bank holiday, Tuesday should offer a clearer read.
The two main areas to start the week are 7869-7872 and 7804-7814 with potential rotational plays between 7804-7814<->7844-7854<->7869-7872.
ES Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/
Trading higher
Reclaiming and holding 7869-7872 (Friday’s high) opens the path toward 7888, then 7893-7897 and then 7897.5 ATH.
Continuation above that high is a continuation-long scenario, with 7915-7924 the next key extension to monitor. We have repeatedly seen nominal new highs attract selling, so follow-through matters. I’m not blindly shorting levels in price discovery; a short needs an actual failure setup.
A failed push above 7869-7872 (Friday’s High/Last Week VAH), including a fresh high that fails, must turn that zone back into resistance to activate the downside scenario.
Trading lower
Failure to reclaim 7869-7872 brings 7844-7854 into focus – Weekly Pivot, Friday’s halfback, and overlapping value. This is the top of the prior multi-week balance (Sept highs). Holding it, or briefly breaking below and reclaiming it, allows another attempt higher.
Persistent weakness below 7844-7854 makes 7804-7814 a more likely target.
As long as 7804-14 holds, including a quick break below that reverses, bulls are not in meaningful trouble. A move lower first that finds buyers here would be more constructive than reaching it after a failed breakout. Either way, holding the zone keeps 7844-7854 and 7869-7872 available on the rebound.
If support gives way
Acceptance below 7804-7814, supported by time and volume, opens another test of 7780-7784. Mark last week’s regular-session low at 7778.25 and overnight low at 7760 (Untested London Low).
Below that, 7747-7754 becomes critical. Buyers would need a reversal that reclaims 7780-7784, then 7815-7820, to reassert control. Failure at 7747-7754 risks liquidation toward 7712-7722, with the 7670s potentially in play if weakness persists.
Let the structure do the talking.
The first move above Weekly Pivot/Balance Top only proves itself after CPI/PPI release, as any such breakout attempt must be validated via event confirmation.
The bullish case remains intact, but the next breakout needs follow-through. My focus is on whether buyers can turn resistance into support and defend pullbacks when volume returns. Let price establish the scenario: continuation above the highs, a supported pullback, or a failed breakout that gains acceptance lower. Until sellers prove otherwise, bulls retain the advantage.