Contract roll and FOMC are behind us, but the market still has something to prove. After 13 weeks of consolidation, the limited upside follow-through leaves the breakout vulnerable. Higher prices remain possible, but until buyers deliver sustained acceptance and expansion, we need to respect the possibility of marginal new highs that fail to develop into a stronger trend.
Leadership remains uneven. NQ/QQQ look stronger, with NQ potentially positioned to resolve its nearly five-month balance. Meanwhile, weakness in YM and RSP suggests broader participation remains unconvincing. SMH and MAGS are testing resistance, making their response an important tell for whether the next push higher gains traction.
For ES, 7680-7690 is the immediate decision zone, aligning with Friday’s value-area low. Holding above it keeps buyers positioned to work through overhead resistance. Losing it opens the door to another test of support and puts Wednesday’s reversal under greater scrutiny.
Trading Higher
Above 7680-7690, the initial references are 7712, followed by Friday’s overnight highs around 7729-7739. The first major target is 7749-7752, followed by 7765-7769 and the single prints at 7782-7787.
Treat the initial advance through roughly 7732-7787 as structural repair. Reaching these levels is only part of the process; the pullbacks that follow will tell us whether buyers are building something sustainable. Higher lows on the 30-minute chart, followed by renewed buying, would support continuation.
Acceptance above 7782-7787 opens the door to the 7838 all-time high, followed by the 7854-7877 extension zone.
The concern is a push above resistance that quickly fails. Watch for those failures at the prior week’s regular-session high, 7765-7769, and 7782-7787. Following a rejection from 7765-7769, 7712 becomes an important support reference. A rejection alone does not establish a bearish reversal: sellers still need to break a prior day’s low, develop a multi-day balance, and resolve that balance lower.
Trading Lower
Acceptance below 7680-7690, particularly with Friday’s 7675 low lost, shifts attention to the weekly value-area low at 7666 and the single-print area below.
A brief break beneath 7666 followed by a reclaim of 7680-7690 would create a potential failed-breakdown long setup, with 7712 as the first recovery objective.
If that reclaim does not materialize, 7644-7648 is the first major support zone, followed by 7624-7634. Responsive buying at either area could still establish a higher low, but the recovery needs to work back toward, and ultimately reclaim, the weekly pivot.
A quick flush into 7618-7624 can fit that scenario. Sustained trade and meaningful volume building below support cannot. Persistent weakness beneath 7644-7648, especially below 7624-7634, materially increases the risk of a full retracement to the prior week’s low. Sellers would then need acceptance beneath that low to establish further downside.
The broader structure still matters: ES has been balancing above the former all-time-high area in the 7620s-7630s since reaching 7838. That makes this support region central to the continuation case.
My focus this week is confirmation. Hold 7680-7690, clear overhead resistance, and build higher lows, and buyers retain a path toward the highs. Lose the pivot without a convincing reclaim, and deeper support comes into play. Let acceptance and the response to each level guide the trade, especially if the market offers another new high without meaningful follow-through.
ES Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/