Bulls still have control. Now the breakout needs to stick.
The opening move was fast enough to push both ES and NQ beyond their weekly expected moves, and the rest of the week brought the digestion you might expect. But the takeaway is simple: sellers had their shot, and they haven’t broken the bullish structure. This week, I’m watching whether bulls can turn another new high into a sustained breakout or whether we’re headed for another lap through the range.
The bigger picture
ES remains in overlapping multi-week ranges, while NQ is working through a larger, multi-month balance. That distinction matters. ES has continued its broader uptrend without taking out a prior month’s low since the low of the year. The overlapping ranges suggest possible fatigue, but they haven’t confirmed a reversal.
The bullish development is that ES spent five days balancing near the top of its broader range, with weekly value moving above the prior four weeks. That gives bulls a potential support base on a backtest following a successful breakout. It doesn’t eliminate the risk of a nominal new high followed by another pullback.
NQ remains the key confirmation. A sustained move above 31095 would strengthen the breakout case and should also clear QQQ’s regular-session all-time high. If that larger balance resolves higher, I would not expect a small move. Sustained strength in NQ should help pull ES along.
We also need confirmation from SPX. Part of ES’s return to these levels reflects contract roll, so an ES high alone doesn’t tell the whole story.
What still concerns me
Friday brought some relief in non-tech on another round of ceasefire headlines, but bonds and crude offered limited confirmation. Washed-out positioning could fuel more upside in non-tech; I’m skeptical of its durability until bonds show a material change.
Watch YM 51975 as a tell. A brief break below followed by a reclaim is manageable. Persistent weakness below it risks unwinding the relief rally and weighing on ES.
The other risk is a failed breakout. But coming off an all-time high, bears still have bullish structure underneath them to overcome. My focus is avoiding the bear trap: a move back inside the range that looks bearish, holds support, and launches higher again.
Trading higher
7815-7822 is the early pivot and includes Friday’s high, last Monday’s VAH, last week’s VAH. A reclaim that holds opens 7834-44 (Upside Pivot) and 7846-7849 (balance top), including last week’s 7848.50 high. That high looks vulnerable to being taken out; what matters is what happens afterward.
If ES breaks above last week’s high and then slips back inside the range, I won’t automatically treat that as a short. Holding 7815-7822 (Friday’s high) could set up a trap as a failed breakout giving another push higher. Sellers need to turn that zone into firm resistance and gain traction through Friday’s range. Buyers need to hold that and reclaim upside pivot.
With sustained continuation above 7834-44, the next reference is SPX’s all-time high currently corresponding to approximately 7880 on ES, though that relationship can shift. Beyond that, 7915-20 is the key target zone.
If ES and NQ sustain breaks above last week’s highs, I’ll focus on longs. I need a fresh multi-day balance, and ultimately a downside break of that balance, before seriously reconsidering that bias.
Trading lower
If 7815-7822 holds as resistance, including after a failed reclaim, 7750-60 (WK Pivot and last WK VAL) comes into play. Expect potential two-way trading between those weekly zones.
Below 7750-60, without a quick reclaim, the next important test is 7718-7725, including Thursday’s RTH low at 7725.25. This zone marks the remaining bullish RTH gap. Also note that there is a weekly value and daily value gap below there to 7706.
A break below that support followed by a reclaim would keep bulls in decent shape. They would then need to recover 7750-7760, potentially extending toward 7762, to work back toward 7815-7822.
Sustained trading below last week’s low would change the picture materially. After a failure near the top of the broader range, 7644-7648, near the prior 7648.75 all-time high, becomes a natural downside target. Below that, the FOMC low comes back into play.
Bulls have earned the benefit of the doubt, but another high still needs follow-through. My job this week is to follow a sustained breakout, respect a failure that gains traction, and avoid confusing a routine backtest with a reversal. 7815-7822 is the immediate decision zone; NQ is the confirmation. Let price prove which scenario we’re trading.
ES Live Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f8EEzTyy/
Weekly Expected Move: 108pts.